Posts Tagged ‘Government’

For Portland, more bikeways mean fewer paved roads

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

The Portland City Council unanimously approved the nation’s most ambitious bike-projects initiative Thursday, with Mayor Sam Adams promising to submit a $20 million “kickstart” funding plan within 30 days.

At the heart of the proposal is nearly 700 miles of new bikeways that would make up a “safer and more comfortable” two-wheeled urban network for new cyclists.

The figure above shows that as Portland had added to its bikeways, the motoring majority has suffered a deterioration of the the City’s roads.

However, Portland is notorious for its road paving backlog. Many streets of the City are entirely unpaved and some streets have potholes so big they could damage a Hummer and almost swallow an Aveo. The City’s current road paving backlog could pave a two-lane road from Portland to San Francisco, California (yes, really).

Unintended consequences: Measure 66 may tax your retirement savings

Monday, January 11th, 2010

The business press and investment advisers have declared this year to be the Year of the Roth IRA.

Roth IRA: “One of the best deals in retirement planning”

With a Roth IRA, virtually all income growth and withdrawals are tax-free.  Because retirees don’t pay taxes on their withdrawals, the Roth IRA has been called one of the best deals in retirement planning.

With the turn of the New Year, the income limits that have prevented many individuals from converting a traditional IRA or employer-sponsored retirement plan to a Roth have been eliminated.   The loosening of the rules is particularly well-timed for a period when workers are losing their jobs and are no longer employed with the company that holds their retirement account.

There is a catch, though.  If you convert your traditional IRA or employer-sponsored retirement plan to a Roth IRA, you must pay taxes on the converted money as if it was earned income.

Even so, the Federal government has made this part less painful in 2010. You can report the amount you convert in 2010 on your tax return for that year. Or, you can spread the amount converted equally across your 2011 and 2012 tax returns, paying any resulting tax in those years. For example, if you convert $50,000 next year and choose not to declare the conversion on your 2010 return, you must declare $25,000 on your tax return for 2011 and $25,000 on you return for 2012. The two-year option is a one-time offer for 2010 conversions.

Many Roth IRA conversions may be subject to Measure 66’s higher rates

While most of the attention on Measure 66 has been directed at the impacts on entrepreneurs and investors, the increased taxes will also affect the thousands of middle class households that are considering a Roth IRA conversion.  Oregon’s Measure 66 will make such conversions especially painful because some or all of the money that investors have saved over the years may be subject to Measure 66’s highest tax rates.

Measure 66 imposes two new tax brackets affecting 2010 income:

  • A new marginal tax rate of 10.8 percent would be levied for taxable income between $250,000 and $500,000 for joint filers and $125,000 and $250,000 for single filers.
  • A new 11 percent marginal tax bracket would be created for taxable income above $500,000 for joint filers and $250,000 for single filers.

More than 40 percent of all families in the U.S. participate in some type of employment-based retirement plan.  These plans include defined benefit (pension) plans and defined contribution plans such as a 401(k) or 403(b).  In addition, approximately 1 in 3 families has an IRA or Keogh account.

Among those with either a defined contribution plan or an IRA/Keogh account, the average account balance is $148,440.  For those age 55 and older, the average account balance is more than $250,000.  More than 1 in 10 families have account balances in excess of $500,000.

A family converting $300,000 in retirement funds would have to come up with another $900 in Oregon taxes if subject to Measure 66.  A family converting a $600,000 retirement account would have to find another $6,500 in cash to pay additional Measure 66 taxes.

As an unintended consequence, Measure 66 may deny many Oregonians the chance to participate in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into what has been called one of the best deals in retirement planning.

The Wall Street Journal provides a summary of the provisions of the Roth IRA conversion program.  The Employee Benefit Research Institute provides statistics on retirement plans and balances in the plans.

Hoodwinking our way out of recession: Oregon DHS uses economic sleight of hand to sell a billion dollars of new taxes

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

Oregon's New Taxes - Economics International Corp.

Over the next four years, Oregonians will face $2.4 billion in new taxes.

In January 2010, Oregonians will vote on ballot measures that will raise personal income taxes by $847 million and raise corporate income taxes by $530 million over the next four years. The campaigns for and against these new taxes ensure that nearly every Oregonian will know about them by Christmas.

$1 Billion in Taxes on Health Insurance and Hospital Care

Less well known are the massive tax increases—$1.0 billion—affecting health insurance and hospital care provided in Oregon. These new taxes are set in stone. There will be no vote and they go into effect soon.

Oregon HB 2116 (PDF) raises taxes through a tax on hospitals and a tax on health insurance providers. The figure above shows that the hospital tax is projected to raise $307 million in 2009-11 and the health insurer tax will raise $105 million in 2009-11. In 2011-13, the increased hospital taxes will amount to $450 million and the health insurance tax will amount to $154 million.

State Agency Fudges Employment Impacts—Again

Such huge tax increases in the middle of one of the worst recessions in memory will slow Oregon’s recovery from the current recession and damage employment growth in the state.

That is why it is so surprising that Oregon’s Department of Human Services (DHS) has reported to Oregon Business magazine that the tax increases will boost employment in the state by 3,600 jobs.

In response to a public records request, DHS has provided documents describing how the agency came up with results that are contrary to fundamental economic analysis.

As it turns out, the agency employed the Broken Window Fallacy to its benefit. The agency counted only the estimated additional money that would flow into the state from Federal sources, such as matching funds.  The agency did not account for the tax money that will be extracted from taxpayers by the State of Oregon. Thus, the agency considered only the benefits of the program, but did not consider the costs.

This is not the first time that state agencies have cooked to books to fudge the economic and fiscal impacts of its tax policies.

The Bend Bulletin (registration required) has picked up these stories and provides a summary of the recent rounds of economic sleight of hand.

Note: This post has been revised since it was originally published.

Portland sacrifices streets for streetcars

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Streets versus Streetcars

Portland politicians love their streetcars. Earlier this month, the city council unanimously approved a streetcar concept plan (PDF) that calls for a massive expansion of the streetcar system throughout Portland.

Streetcar systems have substantial construction costs. On top of that, Portland’s system has huge operating losses. The City of Portland alone provides a subsidy of $1.9 million (or more) a year, or about $1.50 per rider (this PowerPoint has more information). Other funding comes from TriMet, sponsorship, and farebox revenues.

Since the streetcar began construction, Portland’s streets have suffered.  During that time, Portland has added 500 lane miles to its backlog of unpaved streets. Portland’s current backlog could pave a two-lane road from Portland to San Francisco, California. Since streetcar construction began, each additional mile of streetcar has been associated with an additional 114 miles of unpaved roads in the City of Portland.

359_pdot_paving_follow-up_audit

The figure above is from the Portland auditor’s office report on the city’s street repaving projects (PDF). The report request that the Portland Office of Transportation, through its commissioner-in-charge, to provide the auditor with a status report in one year (i.e., August 2009) detailing steps taken to address those recommendations we have reported as not yet resolved. It has been one month since that deadline has passed.

White House economists see increasing unemployment for the next 12 months

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Economics International - Recovery Report Card

The White House budget office has released its latest economic and fiscal projections. It predicts the largest deficits since World War II and increasing unemployment.

The White House unemployment prediction highlights the impotence of the stimulus package passed earlier this year. As the figure above shows, at the time, the administration predicted that the stimulus would have halted job losses by the middle of this summer.

Instead, the latest White House projections predict increasing unemployment until the middle of next year, where it will peak at 10%. This means that another 988,000 workers will lose their jobs over the upcoming year.

VP Biden on Administration economists: “Everyone guessed wrong”

Sunday, June 14th, 2009

recovery_report_card1

Vice President Joe Biden says “everyone guessed wrong” on the impact of the $800 billion economic stimulus.  What he meant was that everyone in the Administration guessed wrong.  That point is made clear by the latest Recovery Report Card.  May unemployment was 1.6 percentage points higher than predicted by the Administration.  If unemployment does not improve, we may see it surpass Christina Romer’s revised projection of 9.5 percent by the end of the year.

There is an old saying that gambling is one of the few things in which you get nothing for something.  It looks like stimulus spending is another one.

Obama economists’ jobless predictions off by 2.9 million

Tuesday, May 12th, 2009

Recovery Report Card - Revised Jobless Predictions

In January, Administration economists Romer & Bernstein predicted that stimulus spending would mean that unemployment at the end of this year would be 7.6 percent.

Now, Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says that even with the stimulus spending, end-of-year unemployment will be 9.5 percent.

In other words, Romer implies that another 925,000 workers will lose their jobs by the end of the year.

If Romer’s most recent prediction is correct, that means that in “selling” the stimulus package Romer & Bernstein were off by almost 3 million jobs.  That is a margin of error of 20 percent.