Archive for the ‘Statistics’ Category

Research on municipal bond costs

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

Eric Fruits co-authored an article for the Municipal Finance Journal on the costs of issuing municipal bonds.

A municipal bond issuer has a choice in how its debt is issued. With negotiated issuance, one or more underwriting firms acting together  purchase the bonds from the issuer. The issuer and the underwriter negotiate many of the terms of the issuance. With competitive issuance, bidders buy all the bonds according to take-it-or-leave-it terms proposed by the issuer in a widely circulated prospectus.

Some observers believe they have seen systematic differences in the costs to the issuer under the two methods. These perceived differences have, in turn, led to research to evaluate whether–or under what conditions–one method is superior to another.

Our research indicates a strong tendency for issuers to select the method of issuance that best suits the nature of the issue at hand, such that policies to mandate one type of issuance over the other will likely increase, rather than decrease, issuance costs.

Citation:

Fruits, E., Pozdena, R., Booth, J., and Smith, R. (2008). A comprehensive evaluation of the comparative cost of negotiated and competitive methods of municipal bond issuance. Municipal Finance Journal, 28(4):15-41.

Posted in Finance, Government, Securities, Statistics | Comments Off

Oregon’s state and local spending: 11th highest in the nation

Friday, July 11th, 2008

Eric Fruits was invited by Oregon’s Revenue Restructuring Task Force to compare Oregon’s state and local government expenditures with other states. In his presentation, Dr. Fruits reported that:

  • Oregon’s per capita state and local expenditures almost doubled between the 1998-99 fiscal year and the 2004-05 fiscal year.  The most recent data from the Census shows expenditures of $8,060 per person.
  • Oregon has the 11th highest state and local expenditures in the U.S. as a share of personal income.
  • Oregon’s state and local expenditures are $2.8 billion higher than statistically predicted by its income and demographics.  That amounts to $776 per person.
  • Oregon’s public employee pension system and insurance payments contribute to the higher spending.  Oregon’s spending on these items accounts for 12.5 percent of total state and local expenditures.  The average among all states is 8.3 percent.  Oregon’s spending on these items would be approximately $1 billion lower if it was “in line” with other states.

The most recent study, co-authored with Randall Pozdena and published by Cascade Policy Institute, is a follow-up to earlier studies published in 2002 and 2004.

Posted in Government, Pensions, Statistics | Comments Off

Expert testimony on the statistics of alleged war crimes

Saturday, April 26th, 2008

Eric Fruits at the ICTY Eric Fruits provided testimony to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) regarding the statistical reliability of estimated relationships between the deaths and migration of Kosovo Albanians and the activities of NATO and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Dr. Fruits also provided testimony regarding the statistical reliability of conclusions that Serb and Yugoslav forces were involved in a systematic campaign of murder and deportation of Kosovo Albanians. Milutinovic et al.

Posted in Human Rights/War Crimes, International, Statistics | Comments Off

Using some basic probability theory to estimate sexual activity among teenage females

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

A widely reported study found that more than one-quarter of 14-19 year old females had a sexually transmitted infection. Curiously, almost one in eight of the survey participants who did not report ever having had sex were found to have had a sexually transmitted infection. This suggests that some survey participants underreported their sexual activity.

A working paper by Dr. Eric Fruits uses the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections to estimate the incidence of sexual activity among survey participants. In contrast to the self reported incidence of sex, Dr. Fruits finds that almost two-thirds of survey participants engaged in some form of sexual activity. In other words, approximately one in four survey participants who did not report any sexual experience are likely underreporting their activities.

Posted in Health Care, Statistics | Comments Off

Expert testimony on insider trading

Saturday, March 31st, 2007

Eric Fruits provided expert testimony to U.S. District Court regarding allegations of insider trading by a tippee. Dr. Fruits performed a statistical analysis the Defendant’s trades in question and compared them to the Defendant’s earlier trading activities. His expert analysis included an evaluation of short sales and options trades. Securities and Exchange Commission v. Philip Evans and Paul Evans.

Posted in Finance, Securities, Statistics | Comments Off

Expert testimony on business valuation and diminished earning capacity

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

Eric Fruits provided expert testimony to Oregon state court regarding Plaintiff’s diminished earning capacity resulting from alleged medical malpractice. Dr. Fruits business valuation analysis included a statistical analysis of the relationship between Plaintiff’s property appraisal business income and an real estate market activity. Lam v. Kaiser, et al.

Posted in Finance, Foregone Income, Real Estate, Statistics, Valuation | Comments Off

Expert testimony on valuation of body imaging business

Monday, July 31st, 2006

Eric Fruits provided expert testimony to California state court regarding Plaintiffs’ foregone income. Plaintiffs allege that Defendants provided malfunctioning mobile body imaging devices (sometimes known as full body scanners). Plaintiffs allege that malfunctions resulted in diminished revenues and business income. Dr. Fruits performed a statistical analysis of the relationship between scanner “down time” and Plaintiffs’ business revenues and income. Vitascan et al. v. GE.

Posted in Foregone Income, Statistics, Valuation | Comments Off