We’ll have to wait some time before we get the official results on Black Friday. My informal survey suggests that Black Friday may be a disappointment for retailers. My informal survey involves trying to visit as many stores before noon. First, I found close-to-the-door parking at every store. Second, I faced check out times of less than 10 minutes at every store.

Some reasons why Black Friday may not be so big this year:

1. Consumer spending is slowing: even though consumer confidence remains high it is beginning to slip, fewer mortgage refis mean less cash for consumer goods; also uncertainty about federal and state taxes also can make the retail champagne taste flat;
2. No good deals, no big products: In past years a thumb through the Black Friday ads would always offer up a must-have product or too-good-to-pass offer, but not this year; The PlayStation 3 and the Wii are the hot products this year, but mumblings suggest that retail margins on the PS 3 are pretty small and consumer hype has dashed hopes that any Wiis would have been available on Black Friday.
3. Competition, competition, competition: Day-After-Thanksgiving sales are now recognized as the starting pistol for the Christmas shopping season; every national retailer participates and they are chasing after the same set of “door buster” customers.

Remember, the survey is informal and consumers can offer surprises. Here are some of the bigger retailers to pay attention to: Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Kroger, Target, Costco, Sears, Best Buy, Gap, and Federated Dept. Stores.

Sometime I’ll discuss why “door buster” sales are like college early-acceptance programs …

UPDATE: Wal-Mart sounded a cautious note by announcing a decrease in same-store sales in November. (Reuters). On the other hand, an executive of Federated suggested that this may be the best Black Friday in years (Reuters).  According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks total sales at more than 45,000 mall-based retail outlets, total sales rose 6 percent to $8.96 billion on Friday (AP).