Eric Fruits presented at the first Cascade Policy Institute Legislative Leadership Forum for the 2009 legislative session.  The topic was Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies: Projected Economic and Fiscal Impacts (PDF). Some highlights from the presentation:

• Oregon has one of the world’s most ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals: A 40 percent reduction per person by 2020.
• There is a strong relationship between economic activity and carbon emissions: A 1% decrease in carbon emissions is associated with 0.71% lower GDP.
• Technological advances cannot fully mitigate the costs of a 40 percent reduction in GHG emissions. Replacing capital is expensive and take years.  Households and firms would have to face years of significantly higher energy prices before investments in more energy efficient technologies replace existing technologies.
• Meeting Oregon’s greenhouse gas reduction goals will slow the state’s economic growth:
  • Output would be $48.3 billion lower because of the State’s GHG emissions targets,
  • 90,000 fewer people would be employed,
  • State and local government revenues would be $4.4 billion lower.

Citation:

Fruits, E. and Pozdena, R. J. (2008). Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies: The Economic and Fiscal Impact Challenges. Cascade Policy Institute.

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